Sunday, March 27, 2011

China to "overtake US and dominate trade by 2030"

Even the BBC is not immune to dramatization.  The article (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12848449) reports that both the World Bank and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), an accounting firm, found that China's economy will be larger than the United States if its growth rates remain at current rates.  The BBC then summarizes PwC's findings that the Chinese are trading a lot (they are one of the trading partners in 17 of the largest 25 trading pairings) and that they manufacture almost 20% of the world's goods.  There are also a smattering of other statistics concerning China's trade and manufacturing position.

All in all, the BBC does not paint a very good picture or provide a good critque of PwC's finding.  What they did well was provide snapshots of data and trends that supported PwC's report.  The two "explanations" the BBC provided in its article was cheap labour and it's current manufacturing position, both explanations which were thrown in at the end of the article that seemed to imply this may be why China is to be the dominant economic force in the future.  However, since both facts are better explanations for China's current economic position, it seems that the BBC simply relayed and summarized the conclusion of PwC's report without providing any explanations as to how likely it is that China's growth rates will be sustained.  No explanation is given except for the small disclaimer, "if it [China] can sustain its growth".

It is these types of articles with little analysis and insight that clouds China's ascent in mystery, thus further fueling the paranoia.

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